The honeymoon's over; let's get it on again, y'all!
- John Tesh, "Roundball Magic"
- Nas, "My Will"
What's goin' on? What you throwin' on? It's part two of the NBA preview, and this time, I came with some friends. Before I get into that, though, make sure you peeped the knowledge that got dropped in PART ONE.
Now, about those friends. If you haven't checked it out by now, Idle at Work needs to be read on the regular. It's funny, it's observant, and it's mostly about the things that I'm about: basketball, hip-hop, pop culture, Jon Stewart, and the gulliest Russian novelists of all time. True to form, the idlers have been holding it down on the NBA preview tip. You can find their preseason thoughts here:
- Bold Predictions
- Atlantic
- Central
- Southeast
- Northwest
- Pacific
- Southwest
What you can't find there, though, are some preseason awards that still need to be handed out. So let's back into the swang o' thangs...
From zach of I@W:
LL Cool J "Didn't You Just Do This?" Award - Gary Payton, Miami Heat
Imagine that, someone actually--*gasp!*--going by GP. Get used to it, Miami.
The desperate struggle to remain relevant through reinvention despite a marked diminution in ability. Does Gary Payton learn anything, or does he suffer from the same ailment that afflicted Guy Pearce in Memento? Let's break down his decisions to join the dynamic/volatile Heat and the dynamic/volatile Lakers a couple years back into a mathematical equation:
Gary Payton + Shaq + "Superfuckingstar 2-guard" (Kobe/Wade) + "Forward worth writing home about" (Malone/Walker & Posey combined) = ?
Then, for giggles and shits, throw J-Dub into that mix this time around. If I recall, the Lakers went out like the original crew of the Event Horizon. 2 careers were destroyed, a franchise fell apart, a coach was fired, and only Shaq walked away moderately unscathed. I'm not trying to predict the future, I'm just learning from the past here. I hope Payton took at least a couple of minutes pondering this before signing that 'tract.
De La Soul "Consistency Like Fiyah" Award - Miami Heat and Houston Rockets
A rare moment
This is just eerie:
2004-2005:
Battle of the Big Big Men: Shaq vs. Yao
Battle of the Superfuckingstar 2-guards: Wade vs. T-Mac
Battle of the Van Gundy Brother Coaches: Stan vs. Jeff
Battle of the Georgetown relics: Zo vs. Dikembe
2005-2006:
Battle of the Nut Job Forwards: Antoine Walker vs. Stromile Swift
Battle of the Mature Playground Starting Point Guards: J-Dub vs. Skip
Battle of the Fallen Backcourt Complements: Payton vs. Derek Anderson
C'mon, that's just crazy.
From me:The Game "Off-season Move Most Likely to Become a Pejorative Noun" Award - Golden State Warriors
It's obviously not his money.Please Note: Due to various factors (innate stupidity, poor ownership oversight, limitless capacity for post-career failure) that were making this category uncompetitive, Isiah Thomas is no longer eligible for the award. From this point forward, it will be renamed in his honor and his head is currently being removed and cryogenically frozen so that it can be put on display in Springfield.Mike Dunleavy just signed a five-year, $44-million contract extension. The following swingmen will make less than roughly $9 million next year: LeBron James, Josh Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Ron Artest, Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, Antoine Walker, Bobby Simmons, Andre Iguodala, Peja Stojakovic. Nicely done, Chris Mullin. See here for guidance.Ice Cube "Bitch in Yoo" Award - Michael Olowokandi, Minnesota Timberwolves
And we all thought it was the Clippers that had won the lottery...An excerpt from a story detailing the Phoenix Suns' preseason mini camp that was in the most recent issue of Sports Illustrated:(Assistants are discussing Amare Stoudemire's best dunks from last season)
"'I'm not sure his best dunk wasn't against Adonal Foyle in the Golden State game,' says Gentry.
'The one against [the Minnesota Timberwolves' Michael] Olowokandi was better,' counters Weber. 'Olowokandi is 7'1" and his wingspan must be 9'6".'
'That doesn't count,' says Gentry. 'Olowokandi's a pussy.'"
Remember on Oz when Peter Schibetta came back from the mental ward after Adibisi raped him and no one could respect Schibetta because of what had happened? Well, Olowokandi = Schibetta. It's official. An assistant coach in the same conference had no problem calling Kandi Man a "pussy" in the most important sports magazine in the country. Let that land. Jesus.Most Improved Player - Nenad Krstc, Nw Jrsy Nts
Throw it...up, big man?I already have James Jownes (Who?! His album...) winning the Killa Cam award, and I@W already made a nice pick in Mickael Pietrus, so let me shine the spotlight on someone else who needs some dap: Nenad Krstic. People like to pretend as though Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson are finna play three-on-five this season, but those are the same sort of people who think that assembling a lineup with five small forwards is a good idea. Alright, so maybe I'm only talking to the Hawks' management here, but the point is that NBA teams need size to really contend, and Krstic is not just big, but he's also talented. Not the most graceful player, Nenad somehow finds ways to score and board. Given the limited Jersey depth at center and a healthy Jason Kidd, I think that Krstic will fairly quietly put up a double double each night, and he will be a very respectable fourth option in the post.Least Improved Player - Tim Thomas, New York Knicks Chicago Bulls
20% of the time, he'll try hard every time.Old habits die hard, for Tim and for me. I almost feel bad for Tim at this point because he is so thoroughly clueless and such a colossal waste of talent. I make fun of him a lot (and he deserves most of it), but it's almost tedious. I wish he'd get better just so that I could call someone else the "Tim Thomas" of his era. But alas, TT's reign as Fugazi Bum Supreme shall continue.Rookie of the Year - Christopher Paul, Oklahoma City Hornets of New Orleans
(Insert joke about punching and groins here)Gonna get the minutes; gonna handle the rock; gonna have to make plays. Good scenario for the young man. Chances: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Charlie Villanueva, Salim Stoudamire. Outside chances: Nate Robinson, Rashad McCants.Sixth Man of the Year - Darko Mil, er, Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls
He's an assassin!This is a loaded category, because there are a lot of reasonably productive players coming off benches right now: Tony Dice, Sarunas Jasikevicius (at least, I think he will produce), Antoine Walker (once Posey is healthy), Donyell Marshall, Hedo Turkoglu, Ricky Davis, Earl Boykins, Jimmy Jackson, Jerry Stackhouse. But though it's chalk, Gordon is a sensible pick because the Bulls will need his scoring and he plays during winning time, a good combination for candidacy.Defensive Player of the Year - Andre Kirilenko, Utah Jazz
Nyet in my howse, Mr. son of a beachKirilenko and Kevin Garnett are probably the only guys in the lig who could guard a two, three, or four on three consecutive possessions and win the matchup each time. Kirilenko is more active though. So long as he's healthy and trusts his body, he's going to block shots, grab steals, alter looks, and rebound. Sort of like the guy who I gave this award to last year, Shawn Marion.
Coach of the Year - Terry Stotts, Milwaukee Bucks
Retread or refurbished?
This is not a popular pick. And it's not a common pick, either. But neither of those were factors in favor of committing this thought to documented history. I think that Milwaukee is making the playoffs this season, and if it does, Stotts will deserve a lot of credit.
Straight Bangin' Preseason Select List:
So pure. The game done changed.
Hall of Fame Members: Scottie Pippen
Coach: Jeff Van Gundy
Also receiving votes: Josh Smith, Antoine Walker, Charlie Villanueva, Rasheed Wallace, Lamar Odom, Dwyane Wade
10) Baron Davis
9) Tim Duncan
8) Andre Iguodala
7) LeBron James
6) Ben Wallace
5) Kevin Garnett
4) Larry Hughes
3) Antonio McDyess
2) Manu Ginobili
1) Tracy McGrady
What's Gonna Happen?
Before I get to some predicted outcomes, please see here. I don't want to be too redundant.
Eastern Conference
In the East, it seems pretty clear that there are four elite teams and then there is everybody else.
Atlantic Division:
1) New Jersey Nets - The Nets could use a pure shooter, however on a night-to-night basis, this roster has plenty of offense. Kidd, Carter, Jefferson, and Krstic is among the best four-player combinations in the Association, and the bench will be productive. McInnis is an able PG; Jackson can bang; and Padgett is deceptively effective. With still-learning Nenad, always suspect VC, bad-knee Kidd, and limited size, do the Nets have enough defense for the playoffs?
2) Illadelph 76ers - With Samuel Dalembert protecting the rim, Andre Iguodala harassing wingmen, and Allen Iverson lurking in the passing lanes, the Sixers should be a fairly strong defensive team. Is Chris Webber going to be the guy who was working his way back with the Kangs or the surly, sulking guy who was limping around the First Union Center? (I know that they changed the name.) Only an idiot will make a prediction about Webber. The Sixers must stay healthy and Steven Hunter must stop living his life in foul trouble. Hunter may have actually just picked up a foul as I typed that last sentence. The good defense, the development of Dre, the shooting of Korver, and the Allen Iverson should get this team to the playoffs.
3) Boston Celtics - I really want to like this team because I'm the sort of person who can look past an aggravated battery charge and embrace a Tony Allen. But that's just me. I also really like Al Jefferson. Sadly, this incarnation of the Celtics seems like a maelstrom of potential problems. There are no defined leaders, ill-defined roles (for instance who is playing the significant minutes at PG and SF?), and a coach who can be generously described as "still learning." When Doc was with Orlando, for instance, his teams ran one play, the one in which McGrady got to shoot. Young players, no leadership, and bad tactics will all lead to frustrating basketball. But at least Tony Allen will play defense and keep it gully.
4) New York Knicks - To recap: Quentin Richardson and Jamal Crawford do the same things; Stephon Marbury is a loser who wants to shoot first; the PF position is muddled; Eddy Curry could die at any moment; Jerome James is most likely worthless; and everyone else is young. This team is not going to defend well; is not going to receive strong on-court leadership; and is not going to execute well in crunch time. And oh by the way, Larry Brown is still not yet convinced that everything isn't always only about him.
5) Toronto Raptors - By my count, there are only three true NBA starters on this roster: Chris Bosh, Jalen Rose, and Charlie Villanueva. Of those three, one is my man; one is a malcontent; and one is a rookie. Joey Graham seems like he might actually be able to play, although I wonder what his position is. Does he have the ball skills to play the three? The size to play the four? That, and Bosh's emergence, may be the only reason to watch this dog team.
Central Division:
1) Indiana Pacers - Everyone already knows about Jermaine O'Neal and Ron Artest. What doesn't get enough press is how effective Jamal Tinsley can be when he's under control. Whether he's getting this team into its offense or dominating--yes, taking over a game--with his dribble penetration, Tinsley can be brutally good. And when Jeff Foster is healthy, the Pacers probably have the second-most rugged starting group in the league. I wonder if Stephen Jackson can adequately replace Reggie Miller, though. Reggie's demeanor and shooting will be missed, although I loved Jasikevicius's range when he was at Maryland. And by the way: shut up about Jonathan Bender. Every year is supposed to be The Year with him. It's not happening, so get off it.
2) Detroit Pistons - Assuming that the Pistons avoid a major injury, it's gonna be the same as always: There will be 50+ wins; maddening spells when the team loses five of six to mediocre or bad teams; lots of defense; and a elemental style that will be hard to watch at times. It doesn't even matter if the Pistons have the best record in the East or not; just ask Miami. The real questions all have to do with the playoffs: Can Rasheed still be a reliable scorer? Will the bench develop more this year? Can Arroyo find confidence? Is this finally the year that Darko earns his paychecks?
3) Cleveland Cavaliers - This team has no depth at center; limited outside shooting; and a PG problem. But none of those issues will keep it out of the playoffs because LeBron is LeBron is Larry Hughes is a team player. LeBron's coming with 25, 7, and 7 each night while Hughes will do whatever he has to--rip ten boards, drop eight dimes, hit for 25. Whatever. The PG situation is a concern for the playoffs, though: Eric Snow can steadily run a team but can't shoot; Damon Jones can bomb from the outside but can't reliably run a team. My solution? Let Hughes or LeBron run the team from the top of the key and put Donyell Marshall on as the SF to spread the floor.
4) Milwaukee Bucks - Playoffs. Eighth seed. It could happen. Not anything like a certainty, but suddenly not so absurd. T.J. Ford has looked good in the preseason; Michael Redd provides the range and the scoring; Bobby Simmons brings the mid-range game; Bogut will be an elite passer in the post; and Jamaal Magloire gives this team an established post presence. Simmons and Redd have to be the jump shooters that they can be, but this team could surprise people if Bogut is ready to contribute. Things could easily go the other way, though...
5) Chicago Bulls - Where is this team getting its offense? The Human Torch wasn't too good as a starter, and though he's a great finisher, the Bulls may not regularly be in games by the fourth quarter with Chandler, Duhon, and Sweetney comprising 60% of the starting lineup. If Luol Deng emerges and Andres Nocioni plays like a poor man's version of a bigger Manu, the Bulls will be in the playoff chase, but I worry about Hinrich wearing down under the strain of creating shots for himself and his teammates.
Southeast Division:
1) Miami Heat - An interesting conundrum, courtesy of Sports Illustrated: "Over the summer the Heat acquired point guards Jason Williams and Gary Payton, so Wade will function almost exclusively as a shooting guard. 'I'll have the opportunity to get out on the wing and run some like I used to,' says Wade." In the playoffs, when Miami needed baskets, Wade was either bringing the ball up the floor and making his move into the paint from straight away or he was coming off of the ball, catching it at the top of the key, and going. That's when he was most effective. However, that's also when he was getting banged up. Wade is Wade, and he isn't going to be stopped at any point on the floor. He really isn't going to be stopped if his jumper--especially that step-back joint he killed dudes with last spring--continues to improve. But he is a lot easier to guard when he is operating on one side of the floor instead of making a move from the top of the key. What will Miami do?
2) Washington Wizards - For some reason, this team feels like it's starting over, but that may be a result of my esteem for Larry Hughes. I think that Jamison and Arenas will continue to play as they have. If Washington is going to be anything more than an easily dispatched pretender, though, it will need Caron Butler to step up. He could use better range, but otherwise, he's a good fit at the three because he's athletic, he defends well, and he goes to the rim hard.
3) Orlando Magic - Now that Amare Stoudemire may be out for the season, Dwight Howard can have the next-generation post-player throne all to himself for eight months. Don't get it twisted: this kid is going to be a beast, and that process could start this season if Grant Hill, Steve Francis, and Brian Hill help Howard understand that Orlando is his team. Sadly, he isn't working with much: Grant is already on his way to an injury-ravaged season and the Magic should refund some ticket money given how pathetic its PG situation looks. DeShawn Stevenson is not an NBA starter and Keyon Dooling is not an NBA point guard. I've always liked the Franchise, but his teams never win, so you can't help but wonder what kind of leader he is.
4) Atlanta Hawks - This is the kind of roster a bad fantasy player puts together, grabbing mediocre talent given a bad draft position and always opting for the best player available instead of filling some needs. Sadly for the Hawks, their draft (and salary cap) position is usually good, so that's not really an excuse. Joe Johnson is great, but I don't think he's great as a point guard, and next four best players are all swingmen: Harrington, Williams, Smith, and Childress. If Marvin Williams one day (not this season) proves that he can play inside with some effectiveness, he could be part of an undersized lineup in the same way that Antawn Jamison is regularly. And a group of Williams, Harrington, Johnson, and Smith wouldn't be bad at positions 2-4 with someone coming off of the bench. If the Hawks are smart, they'll trade a guy like Childress for a real PG (Portland has two and could use better size than Juan Dixon provides) and let Johnson play off the ball so that he can utilize screens, spot up, and hit some of those pull-up jumpers on either side of the floor. Salim Stoudamire could be this year's Ben Gordon given his range.
5) Charlotte Bobcats - Why doesn't Keith Bogans start? Where does Gerald Wallace rank among the all-time inexplicably overrated players? These are the only things that interest me about this team. I give Bickerstaff credit for keeping these guys focused, though. They played hard in a ton of games last season.
Playoff teams: 1) Miami, 2) Indiana, 3) New Jersey, 4) Detroit, 5) Cleveland, 6) Philadelphia; 7) Washington; 8) Milwaukee
Conference Semis: Detroit over Miami in Seven; Indiana over New Jersey in six
Conference Finals: Detroit over Indiana in seven
Western Conference
The West has the title favorite and great depth 1-8, however I really don't think that any team other than San Antonio has realistic title aspirations this season. In fact, the second-best team in the West is likely the fifth or sixth best team in the league.
Northwest Division:
1) Denver Nuggets - The Nuggets didn't really address their biggest need, outside shooting, during the off season, and they enter this year ready to serve as the token division winner that makes an early exit. George Karl and success are usually fleeting lovers, and Denver is still a team whose best player is a knucklehead. Given all of the preternatural gifts that were on display when he was a freshman with the 'Cuse, Carmelo Anthony has been a disappointment in the L. He holds the ball too long, he takes horrible shots, and he is petulant, still. Even worse, when Denver needs a big basket in a half-court set, it doesn't have the outside shooting or reliable inside scoring. This division is fairly weak and Carmelo should be better, but I am not buying the Nuggets.
2) Seattle Supersonics - It's getting to be like groundhog day: every year, Rashard Lewis plays like an all-star before getting hurt and limping home from the playoffs. Every year. What's going to be different now? This remains a glorified college team, replete with the jump shooters, undersized power players, and uptempo style.
3) Utah Jazz - My sleeper playoff team in the West. If Deron Williams can learn the NBA game quickly enough, Utah could be dangerous. Its frontline is formidable. Harpring and Giricek need to force defenses to respect them.
4) Portland Trailblazers - I didn't watch Bassy enough last season to get a full sense of his game, but I think I like Jarrett Jack better. Jack's range is decent, but he runs a team nicely and finishes at the rim after contact. That's a crucial skill. Is there a more idiotic position tandem in the league than Darius Miles-Ruben Patterson at SF? That duo could accomplish any ignominious goal to which it applied itself.
5) Minnesota Timberwolves - I just don't understand how Kevin McHale allowed his roster to fall apart like this. The projected starting five: KG, Wally Sczcerbiack, Kandi, Marko Jaric, and Trenton Hassell. That's one superstar, one perpetually disgruntled shooter, one unmitigated disaster, some Euro who can't find a consistent rhythm, and one defender who can't score. Are you kidding me? The bench probably has more talent, so perhaps lineup changes will ensue, but right now, this team seems like a hapless group that will drive its star crazy. If the T'Wolves start out something like 5-20, they should let Rashad McCants take over at the two so that he can get a feel for how his game works at the pro level. I like his chances so long as he doesn't force too many things.
Pacific Division:
1) Sacramento Kangs - I can't believe that I'm putting this team at the top of the Pacific Division, but its starting lineup is pretty talented, and I really like Bibby and Miller. Miller misses too many easy layups, but the Sacramento system is great for him. And Bibby is just a stud. Imagine if he were ever on a team that wasn't counting on a choker like Stojakovic or a punk like Webber. What a shame. Peja will fade in the playoffs and Shareef hasn't ever won anything, so don't view this ranking as an endorsement of the Kangs' championship chances, but who else merits this projection? See what I was saying about a deep but underwhelming Western Conference?
2) Phoenix Suns - If you believe the rumors, Amare Stoudemire isn't playing this year. And if that's the case, then Phoenix is going to the playoffs and trying to win without the best big man not named Shaq or Duncan. Forget it. Because of the style it plays, the emergence of James Jones, the improvement of Raja Bell, and the all-star caliber performances it will get from Nash and Marion, Phoenix will be alright during the regular season, though. The most important player, suddenly, could be Kurt Thomas. I always thought that Steven Hunter's departure was overlooked, and now that Stoudemire is out, KT must own the glass and make good outlet passes.
3) Golden State Warriors - Everyone's new-to-the-playoffs darlings. I am skeptical because Troy Murphy is not a true post player and Adonal Foyle can't score. But there are some great pieces in place, like Baron Davis. Now that Dunleavy's locked up, I guess he's staying, and that's too bad, because I'd like to see the insanely athletic Pietrus starting. He'd bring better defense and energy and rebounding to the team. Oh well; I think he might emerge as an energizing, galvanizing force off of the bench. I think that this team is one year and one big man away.
4) Los Angeles Lakers - This is a hard team to evaluate. An optimist sees Kobe, Odom, and Brown and salivates thinking about the athleticism. A pessimist sees a destructive loner, a sometime space cadet, and an all-but-certain bust. The Lakers probably can play with almost any team on a given night, however the awkward chemistry and minimal supporting talent makes me think that everything is going to require a lot of work, and that may take its toll on the team as the season carries on. If nothing ever comes easily, 82 games can be very, very tiring.
5) Los Angeles Clippers - Sam Cassell was a bad idea for a team trying to groom a young PG and balance the needs of shoot-first guys like Mobley, Brand, and Maggette. It's not like Sam wants to be serving as elder statesperson on a losing team. Oh boy...
Southwest Division:
1) San Antonio Spurs - It's almost boring to write about this team. All I wonder is what the rotation will look like. The starters are set, and I don't see Pop playing ten guys, so that means someone like Barry could end up sitting more than he thinks he should.
2) Houston Rockets - I love TMac. That's a given. And I love Jeff Van Gundy. Also a given. I like Stro Show and Rafer if this team really is committed to a faster pace. I also like Yao, although his limitations are so obvious. As we know, I like Bob Sura. What does it all mean? I think that Houston finally has the pieces in place to win a playoff series, although it could use more outside shooting. And, sadly, it can't beat the Spurs.
3) Dallas Mavericks - All the rhetoric is about Dallas committing to defense this season, but that's been the rhetoric for a few years. What was the last elite NBA team whose best offensive player was such an obvious defensive liability? Spurs, Pistons, Lakers, Bulls, Rockets--all of these teams were led by players who could contribute at both ends. I realize that NBA history is filled with stories of players routinely bumping up against a glass ceiling and finally breaking through to ultimate success: Isiah and the Bad Boys; Jordan; Shaq and Kobe. But am I the only one who thinks that Dirk and Co. are unlikely to participate in this tradition? It feels as though Dirk was exposed a little last season in the playoffs: He couldn't guard anyone, he couldn't carry his own team, and his scoring was way off because McGrady was punking him. He fell back a bit.
4) Memphis Grizzlies - Don't confuse activity with accomplishment. I think John Wooden said that or something like it. It seems like an appropriate maxim to trot out when assessing the recent work of another basketball legend, Jerry West. Over the summer, Stromile Swift, Bonzi Wells, Jason Williams, and Earl Watson left, replaced, respectively, by Hakim Warrick, Eddie Jones, Damon Stoudamire, and Bobby Jackson. Did Memphis really accomplish anything? Warrick seems fairly similar to Swift, though he may have a more refined offensive repertoire; Jones is a fading mid-level talent who can't carry the load; Stoudamire is a small, somewhat erratic PG; and Jackson is constantly hurt at this point. Are the Grizzlies at all improved? Like most seasons, they'll be competitive and Pau Gasol will be underrated.
5) New Orleans Hornets - This frontcourt is a disaster. There is no true size.
Playoff teams: 1) San Antonio; 2) Sacramento; 3) Denver; 4) Houston; 5) Dallas; 6) Phoenix; 7) Seattle; 8) Utah
Conference Semis: San Antonio over Houston in five; Sacramento over Phoenix in seven
Conference Finals: San Antonio over Sacramento in four
NBA Finals: San Antonio over Detroit in six games